There will be a large Nitish-shaped hole in Bihar, how it is filled will write the new Bihar story

Nitish Kumar’sexit from Biharwill be a momentous inflection point in a politically turbulent state that has cradled large national movements. Only months after a handsome assembly victory, the state’s longest serving chief minister took the dramatic step of filing his nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha on Thursday. Since 2005, when he first became CM for a full term, Nitish has been the fulcrum of his state’s politics, moving it forward, in spite of his own flip flops, smudging caste and communal fault lines, expanding the middle ground, softening the edge. It has become part of the political commonsense to talk of Bihar before and after Nitish. Before he took charge, the state had seen a radical upturning of caste politics in the 1990s, with his more flamboyant fellow traveller and rival, Lalu Prasad, leading the grand Mandal reset. At the same time, Lalu also presided over a de-institutionalisation. On his watch, the promise of “social justice” was drained of its transformative potential, as his vision shrank to his own caste and family. It was left to Nitish to turn that story around, and he did so, spectacularly. He ensured that the authority of the state was restored and that “samajik nyay” was threaded with “vikas” or development in “Naya Bihar”.

As a leader belonging to a relatively small middle OBC caste, and as a JP legatee who saw “social justice” as many-layered change, not caste retribution, Nitish’s location helped him play the crucial bridging role. Politically, this meant that he stitched up a coalition of extremes, bringing together, in alliance with the BJP, upper castes with non-Yadav OBCs and Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) plus sections of Dalits and Muslims. To Nitish, in particular, goes the credit for the political mobilisation of the large swathe of scattered EBCs, ensuring that the wheels of Mandal did not stop turning with the empowerment of the dominant OBCs. Another big success came from his sustained efforts to forge a “woman constituency”. From the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana, to reservation for women in government jobs and panchayat bodies, to the Jeevika network of self-help groups, Nitish built a formidable reputation of being a leader who addressed women voters, sensitively and specially.

Having prised open space for governance in a state where caste has etched deep and polarising lines on the ground, having ensured that a UP-style communalisation is kept at bay in Bihar, despite his alliance with the BJP, Nitish now steps away from the state, with no successor in sight. His own party is divided, his alliance partner is on the upswing. The Bihar turnaround is at stake. The BJP will need to be mindful of that responsibility. Whether this moment leads to a backsliding, or to a new chapter that builds on the era of Nitish, will depend not just on the JD(U)-BJP, but also on the main opposition RJD and new entrant, Jan Suraaj Party. There is going to be a large Nitish-shaped hole in Bihar, how it is filled will write the new Bihar story.