Af-Pak ‘open war’ risks becoming an intractable conflict

The airstrikes by Pakistan that killed at least 400 people at a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul marked a tragic escalation in what Islamabad has termed an “open war” against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The attack on Monday night — Islamabad has denied responsibility for it — on a civilian installation follows nearly a month of cross-border strikes and retaliatory exchanges between the two countries. Both sides agreed on Wednesday to a temporary “pause” in hostilities for Eid this week, after mediation by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. Hopefully, this will provide the space and time for a dialogue to begin. In October 2025, Qatar and Turkey had brokered a fragile ceasefire, which collapsed on February 22 when Pakistan carried out a wave of airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) outposts — Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the TTP.

India condemned Pakistan’s attacks as a “flagrant violation” of international law at the UN Security Council last week.Delhihas called the hospital bombing a “cowardly and unconscionable act of violence” and accused Pakistan of “trying to dress up a massacre as a military operation”. India does not formally recognise the Taliban government, and formal dialogue with Pakistan remains suspended. At the same time, India’s strategic partners in West Asia — who could exert pressure on Pakistan to work towards meaningful progress rather than just a temporary ceasefire — remain engaged in their own conflict as energy infrastructure becomes the target of Iran’s retaliation against the US and Israel. Meanwhile, Washington’s backing of Pakistan’s “right to defend itself against Taliban attacks” appears to have emboldened Rawalpindi. Nearly a month later, there are few signs of de-escalation.

Pakistan is waging war against a militant movement that it helped create and sustain. Islamabad’s suspension of trade and restrictions on visa access are only fuelling anger and resentment in the Afghan people. Diplomacy should be given another chance before the current bombing campaigns turn into an intractable conflict, which could lead to a long period of regional destabilisation and hardship.