US-Iran ceasefire is fragile. It must hold for hard work of diplomacy to begin

That less than 12 hours after President Donald Trump’s apocalyptic social media threat-making — “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again” — the US and Iran have agreed to a provisional two-week ceasefire, is a great relief. It opens up space for diplomacy to come back in. Of course, the ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, is fragile. To hold, it faces formidable challenges. A meeting ground remains elusive on the US demand for complete dismantling of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, the question of post-war control over the Strait of Hormuz, the future of sanctions and Iranian proxies, and the presence of US bases in the region. Complicating matters further is the discrepancy between two versions of the peace plan released by Iran. The Farsi text includes the phrase “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear programme, which is absent from the English version. Bridging the gaps will be the arduous test — it will require sustained engagement not only between Washington and Tehran, but also a wider dialogue that includes Israel and the Gulf states.

For 39 days, the regime in Iran has dug in its heels. By all accounts, the US-Israeli decapitation strategy, even as it has wreaked damage and devastation, has also served to further entrench it. Even a week ago, Tehran rejected a ceasefire, insisting on a permanent end to the war on its terms. Yet, for all the brinkmanship, it is now evident that both Iran and the US — where the war has not just sharply divided the White House but also appears to have riven the country — needed an off-ramp. Going ahead, Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu’s apparent pursuit of a forever war, one that would keep West Asia and global markets on the boil, remains an X factor. Israel has said that the pause does not extend to Lebanon, even as Pakistan’s Prime MinisterShehbaz Sharifhas announced that it does. Trump must not allow Netanyahu to derail the ceasefire.

Pakistan’s role points to its ability to punch above its weight, diplomatically. A little over a week ago, it hosted the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. It was also Islamabad that conveyed Washington’s 15-point proposal to Tehran, and relayed Iran’s response to it. A late diplomatic push by China — where Pakistan and Afghanistan held what were described as “useful” talks on their own conflict more recently — cannot be discounted. The list of flashpoints is long and resolution will neither be quick nor easy. But for now, the priority must be a ceasefire that holds.