A tough road to Hamas disarmament
Whether US President Donald Trump’s announcement of the “complete disarmament” of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza proves to be the breakthrough he claims it will be depends on all parties honouring their commitments. The US President has said Hamas’s disarmament would pave the way for a Palestinian committee to take over governance in Gaza and for Israel’s military withdrawal, as envisaged under his 20-point peace plan, which Hamas and Israel agreed to nearly 10 months ago. That Hamas will agree to disarm is, based on current evidence, highly improbable. Whatever legitimacy it still commands is rooted in its use of terror as resistance against Israel’s illegal occupation. The first challenge is one of sequencing: Who makes the first concession? Shortly after Trump’s announcement, Hamas said it would not move on disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Strip. The second concerns the weapons. Hamas says it has agreed to transfer its arsenal to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a body of independent Palestinian technocrats supervised by the Board of Peace. Israel has maintained that the “full demilitarisation” of Gaza is a “non-negotiable” precondition for any military withdrawal. Indeed, the 13 members of the NCAG have so far been barred by Israel from entering Gaza. Matters are further complicated by opposition from Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing allies, who have gone beyond the government’s stated war aims by advocating permanent Israeli security control over Gaza and the re-establishment of Jewish settlements there. How far Netanyahu, with an eye on the next election, is willing — or able — to override them will depend on the pressure Trump is prepared to exert him. Despite the ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out airstrikes, while the humanitarian catastrophe unleashed by the war following Hamas’s October 7 terror attack has shown little sign of abating. Israel continues to restrict the entry of humanitarian aid into the Strip, and making the survival of the civilian population contingent on Hamas’s disarmament amounts to collective punishment. Whatever the fate of Trump’s peace plan, food, medicine and infrastructure material must be allowed to make their way to Gaza, and reconstruction must begin without delay. That should not be hijacked by either Israel or Hamas.
- 1The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a body of thirteen independent Palestinian technocrats envisioned under Trump's peace plan, represents an attempt at technocratic interim governance similar in spirit to transitional administrations used in past post-conflict settings. Its legitimacy depends on the Board of Peace, an international oversight mechanism, functioning much like international transitional authorities have in other conflict zones such as Kosovo or East Timor. Whether such an externally supervised technocratic body can govern Gaza without a popular mandate remains a significant unresolved governance question.
- 2The ceasefire and disarmament framework builds on Trump's 20-point peace plan, accepted by both Hamas and Israel nearly ten months earlier, echoing the phased approach of the 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and the PLO. Regional mediators such as Qatar and Egypt have historically played central roles in Hamas-Israel negotiations, given their existing channels with Hamas's leadership, a pattern likely repeating here. The core diplomatic challenge, as in Oslo, remains the classic dilemma of which side moves first on its commitments.
- 3Israel's continued restriction on humanitarian aid into Gaza implicates the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, which prohibits collective punishment of civilian populations and obligates parties to allow humanitarian relief during conflict or occupation. The International Court of Justice, in provisional measures ordered in the South Africa vs Israel case beginning January 2024, had already directed Israel to ensure adequate humanitarian assistance reaches Gaza's population. Hamas's continued designation as a terrorist organisation by the United States, European Union and others also complicates any formal international legal engagement with its disarmament commitments.
- 4The Gaza war following Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel, has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths and displaced roughly 1.9 million of Gaza's 2.1 million residents, according to UN estimates. Reconstruction cost estimates for Gaza's destroyed infrastructure, including homes, hospitals and schools, have been projected by the World Bank and UN at over 50 billion dollars. These figures underline why the editorial insists food, medicine and rebuilding material must keep flowing regardless of the political fate of Trump's disarmament plan.