Straws in the wind: On the Bankipur, Datia and Manjalpur by-elections
The by-elections held on July 30, 2026 in three Assembly constituencies across three Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled States threw up some surprises, but it may be risky to read them as indicators of any definitive or enduring political trend. Still, Bankipur in Bihar, Datia in Madhya Pradesh and Manjalpur in Gujarat were among the most closely watched electoral contests. Though involving only three seats, the results were significant, offering clues about regional political currents, the strength of major parties and the prospects of emerging political formations. These were also the first electoral tests after student protests forced the BJP to remove Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on July 25. The most consequential result came from Bankipur. The seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin resigned following his election to the Rajya Sabha. Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor chose the constituency for his electoral debut, turning what would otherwise have been a routine by-election into a high-profile political contest. He defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar by 19,324 votes, ending decades of BJP dominance in the constituency. It marks the JSP’s first major electoral success and gives Mr. Kishor political legitimacy after years as an election strategist. In Datia, the Congress secured an important victory as its candidate, Ghanshyam Singh, defeated BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari by just over 6,000 votes. Unlike Bankipur, Datia witnessed a robust voter turnout of 71.44%, indicating strong local engagement with the contest and suggesting that the Congress retains pockets of resilience in Madhya Pradesh despite the BJP’s dominance. The victory does not alter the balance of power in the Assembly, but gives the Congress evidence that local anti-incumbency and candidate-specific factors can still work in its favour. For the BJP, the defeat serves as a reminder that its Statewide strength does not automatically translate into victory in every constituency. The third contest, in Manjalpur produced a different outcome. The BJP retained the constituency, with Satish Govindbhai Patel defeating his rival by over 30,000 votes. Manjalpur demonstrates the BJP’s ability to hold its core support base. At the same time, the outcomes in Bankipur and Datia suggest some volatility among the BJP’s core social base of Hindu voters, particularly the upper castes. There is also a larger acceptance among the electorate for fresh political experiments, and that is a trend that connects what happened in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections with Bankipur. If this trend holds, the challenge will be not only for the BJP but also for other legacy parties, including and particularly the Congress. Published - August 05, 2026 12:20 am IST Read Comments Copy link Email Facebook Twitter Telegram LinkedIn WhatsApp Reddit READ LATER SEE ALL Remove Related Topics election / Bharatiya Janata Party / Bihar / Madhya Pradesh / Gujarat / politics / ministers (government) / education / Cockroach Janta Party / students / Rajya Sabha / Indian National Congress / voting / Caste / Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 / Jan Suraaj Party
- 1By-elections to fill Assembly vacancies are governed by Section 151A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, which requires the Election Commission to hold the poll within six months of the vacancy arising, unless the remaining term is under a year. The Commission's constitutional mandate for superintendence and control of elections flows from Article 324, while Article 172 fixes a state Assembly's normal term at five years. These three by-elections in BJP-ruled Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat therefore functioned as a constitutionally mandated mid-term test of local governance, even though only three of hundreds of seats were at stake.
- 2The removal of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan after student protests illustrates the doctrine of collective responsibility under Article 75(3), mirrored for states in Article 164(2), under which the Council of Ministers is collectively answerable to the House and, by extension, politically answerable to public sentiment. Student-led protest movements have historically forced policy reversals in India, echoing episodes like the 1990 Mandal agitation. The by-elections became an implicit referendum on whether this ministerial change satisfied public anger over education policy.
- 3New outfits like the Jan Suraaj Party must register with the Election Commission under Section 29A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, before contesting polls and receiving a reserved symbol. Should winning candidates later switch allegiance, the Tenth Schedule's anti-defection provisions, upheld in Kihoto Hollohan v. Zachillhu (1992), would govern disqualification for voluntarily giving up party membership. The Election Commission also enforces the Model Code of Conduct during by-elections under its Article 324 powers, a non-statutory but judicially recognised tool for ensuring free and fair polls.
- 4The three contests produced sharply different turnout and margin numbers: Datia recorded a robust 71.44 percent turnout with a roughly 6,000-vote Congress win, while Bankipur saw Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party prevail by 19,324 votes and Manjalpur saw the BJP retain its seat by over 30,000 votes. Such wide variation in margins across only three seats illustrates how localized, candidate-specific factors can outweigh any uniform statewide swing. Reading three results as a national trend would be statistically unsound, given that Indian state Assemblies collectively comprise well over four thousand seats nationwide.