Monsoon has revived, but keep an eye on weather
Cumulative rainfall deficiency in the currentsouthwest monsoon season(June-September) has reduced to 11.5 per cent, from 38 per cent in June and 22.8 per cent till July 15. The interesting part about this seeming turnaround is that the dreaded El Niño was only in a weak-to-moderate phase in June. Yet, not a single rain-bearing low-pressure system (LPS) was formed, as against a normal average of three stretching over 11 days for that month. July, by contrast, not only saw four LPSs develop (normal is three). It also recorded 24 LPS-active days (normal: 14). As a result, despite El Niño becoming a moderate-to-strong event, the month registered a 2.4 per cent all-India rainfall surplus. The monsoon situation thus, far from worsening (the India Meteorological Department had predicted below-normal precipitation for July), has revived. That revival has also helped narrow the overall gap in progressive area sown under kharif crops from 20.8 per cent till the first week of July to 2.9 per cent at month-end. The rains post mid-July have boosted late plantings, including pulses, soyabean, sesamum and cotton, that were significantly lagging behind. Moreover, they have been lifesaving for the already sown crops facing moisture stress from the monsoon’s prolonged break. But for the recent showers, even those crops would have suffered stunted vegetative growth. In short, kharif hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that many were fearing after a dry June and amid concerns over an intensifying El Niño. For now, things look manageable. Even in fertilisers, the shortages haven’t been dire. Production and imports of urea have, in fact, been higher in April-June 2026 over April-June 2025. That said, the standing kharif crop needs a couple of good spells of rain in the second half of this month and early September. The Met Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the entire second half of the monsoon season, on the back of a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions. With El Niño expected to turn into a “very strong” event during October-September and persist through the next quarter, the effects could be felt in the upcoming rabi or winter-spring crop as well. Also, El Niño’s impact is known to come with a lag. The government cannot afford to take its eye off the weather. Proactive supply-side management will remain key.
- 1Agricultural policy and rainfall management sit primarily with State governments under the State List in the Seventh Schedule, though the Centre retains a coordinating role through the India Meteorological Department and schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana crop insurance scheme. Article 21's expanding interpretation of the right to life has, in past litigation, been read to encompass food security and drought-relief obligations of the state. The editorial's call for proactive supply-side management underscores how monsoon variability tests the Centre-state coordination machinery built into India's federal agricultural governance.
- 2India's kharif season, sown between June and July, accounts for roughly half the country's annual foodgrain output and directly influences inflation trends tracked by the Reserve Bank of India, since food items carry nearly 40 percent weight in the Consumer Price Index. Policy responses to monsoon shortfalls typically include buffer-stock releases under the Food Corporation of India and, in severe cases, drought declarations triggering relief under the Disaster Management Act. A below-normal second half of the monsoon, as the IMD now forecasts, could revive inflationary and rural-income concerns that briefly eased after July's surplus.
- 3India's monsoon and drought-response framework operates through statutory bodies including the India Meteorological Department, established in 1875 and now under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and the National Disaster Management Authority, constituted under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, which can recommend drought as a notified disaster. The Essential Commodities Act, 1955 empowers the Centre to regulate stock limits on foodgrains during shortages, a tool historically activated during poor monsoon years. Fertiliser supply, referenced in the editorial via urea imports, is regulated under the Fertiliser (Control) Order, 1985.
- 4The numbers in this editorial illustrate monsoon volatility within a single season: rainfall deficiency swung from 38 percent in June to a 2.4 percent surplus in July, while the kharif sown-area gap collapsed from 20.8 percent to 2.9 percent in under a month. India's monsoon supplies nearly 70 percent of the country's annual rainfall and irrigates about 60 percent of net sown area, making the four-month June-to-September window disproportionately important for an agricultural sector that still employs roughly 45 percent of India's workforce.