Strong El Niño may bring more extreme weather across the world, warns WMO
Geography and current affairs meet in this one. The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that a strong El Nino is likely to develop rapidly between July and September 2026. So what's El Nino? It's an unusual warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather worldwide, bringing heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rain in different regions. For India, El Nino years often mean a weaker monsoon, which hits farm output and food prices. That's why the government is already being cautious with its foodgrain policy. The warning came in the WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update. Bottom line for the exam, link El Nino, Pacific warming, the WMO, and the risk to the Indian monsoon.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a likely rapid transition into a strong El Nino event during July-September 2026.
Drought-bearingEl Niñoconditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to intensify rapidly in the next few months, increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavyrainand other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a likely rapid transition into a strong El Nino event during July-September 2026.
The multi-model ensemble forecasts from the leading met agencies suggest a significant warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies forecast to be greater than 2°C in key monitoring regions.
Consensus across forecast models and the outlook are very confident. El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the Northern Hemisphere autumn (September-November), and its effects are likely to be felt across the globe. The equatorial Atlantic basin, meanwhile, is expected to remain warmer than average.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Niño generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. They tend to develop in the March to June period and to reach maximum strength in the November to February period, with the most effect on global temperature in the year following their formation.
El Niño will have different impacts, depending on the strength, duration and time of year in which they develop, but also on their interaction with other modes of climate variability (e.g., the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all parts of the world are affected, and impacts can be different even within a region. ENSO can be neutral and still have extreme weather events.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update says there is a probability of above-average temperatures over most land areas between 60°S and 60°N — which includes almost all populated areas outside the polar regions, the report says.
The rapidly intensifying El Niño event has a heavily structured footprint over the oceans in the equatorial Pacific, with more than an 80 per cent probability of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line.
Temperatures are also expected to be above average in the Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic. However, below- to near-normal temperature probabilities are expected to continue in a horseshoe-like shape over the North Atlantic.
The July-September 2026 rainfall outlook indicates a pattern that is consistent with a strengthening El Nino event.
There is an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below-normal rainfall over parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
The signals show a distinct east-west contrast over equatorial Africa. The outlook indicates above-normal rainfall for land areas along the northern Gulf of Guinea and below-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa.
Below-average rains are also expected in parts of Central America, the Caribbean and north-western South America. Parts of the Southwest, however, are more likely to experience wet-above-average conditions.
The Europe-wide outlook shows a north-south divide, with above-normal rainfall more likely in southern Europe and below-normal rainfall in northern Europe. But confidence in the forecast is still lower in Europe than in most other regions.