Strategic stalemate: On the U.S.-Iran conflict
President Donald Trump ’s decision to back off from striking Iran , just hours after threatening to seize the country’s Kharg Island , underscores the dilemma he faces in dealing with Tehran. Mr. Trump, who launched the conflict with his ally Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on February 28 , now wants to end it through talks. But Iran, which survived 40 days of U.S.-Israeli bombing and now controls the Strait of Hormuz , appears unwilling to hand him a diplomatic victory. Caught between an uncontrollable Israel, whose bombing of Lebanon threatens the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and an emboldened Iran that has become increasingly defiant and intransigent, Mr. Trump reverted to his familiar playbook of using military pressure to alter Tehran’s negotiating position. On Wednesday he ordered strikes on Iran after confirming that a U.S. Apache helicopter had been shot down over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. After two nights of tit-for-tat strikes, Mr. Trump backed off on Thursday, claiming progress in talks. Over the past two months, he has claimed dozens of times that a deal with Iran was within reach. In the war’s escalation cycle, Mr. Trump takes one step forward, two steps back. When Mr. Trump despatched his “armada” to Iran’s shores in February, he wanted to force Tehran into submission through military pressure. The U.S. and Israel had an ambitious list of demands, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme, degrading its missile capabilities and ending its support for non-state militias. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war, they wanted regime change in Tehran. More than three months later, the war, which failed to achieve any of its declared objectives, has hardened Iran’s positions. If Iran was willing to make concessions on its nuclear programme on February 27, it now insists that any discussion on the nuclear file can take place only after the U.S.-Israeli hostilities cease and the blockade is lifted. The war has fundamentally altered the strategic reality of the region. Yes, Iran has absorbed significant military and economic costs, but it has emerged strategically stronger by taking control of the Hormuz Strait and effectively trapping the U.S. in a costly stalemate. Rather than chasing a delusional Iranian surrender, Washington should adopt a phased, realistic diplomatic approach. The priority should be to enforce and extend the ceasefire in good faith and lift the blockade in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Once stability is restored, both sides can return to substantive talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and work towards a durable end to the conflict. USA / Iran / Israel-US strikes on Iran / diplomacy / Kuwait / Bahrain / Jordan / nuclear policy / defence / economy (general) / Donald Trump
- 1On the governance front, India's response to West Asian conflict is shaped by constitutional allocation of foreign-affairs power to the Union. Entry 10 of the Union List and Article 246 vest war, peace and treaty-making with Parliament and the executive, while Article 51 of the Directive Principles directs the State to promote international peace and respect for international law. India's traditional posture of strategic autonomy means New Delhi engages both Tehran and Washington without binding alliance commitments.
- 2Geopolitically, the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply, so any blockade directly threatens India's energy security as a major crude importer. India has historically balanced ties with Iran, including the strategically vital Chabahar Port and the stalled International North-South Transport Corridor, against its deepening partnership with Israel and the United States. The 1981 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees transit passage through such international straits, a norm Iran's control challenges.
- 3Legally, any U.S. use of force against Iran raises questions under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the threat or use of force, and Article 51, which permits self-defence only against an armed attack. Iran's nuclear file is governed by the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 and IAEA safeguards, while the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which the U.S. withdrew in 2018, remains the key reference framework. Regime change by force has no sanction in international law.
- 4Economically, oil-price shocks from the Strait of Hormuz hit India hard, as it imports over eighty per cent of its crude. A sustained supply disruption can widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee and stoke imported inflation through costlier petrol, diesel and LPG. India's strategic petroleum reserves, holding roughly ten days of cover at three locations, offer only a limited buffer against a prolonged closure of the world's most important oil chokepoint.
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