Bad for both: On the Russia-Ukraine conflict
More than four years into Russia’s invasion , Ukraine has found ways to raise the cost of the war for the Kremlin — striking its energy infrastructure with drones and imposing a drone blockade on Crimea. When the war began in February 2022, Ukraine’s immediate response was to resist Russia’s battlefield advances, while mobilising international support. As the war dragged on, Ukraine received advanced defensive and offensive weapons from its western partners, while Russia was subjected to sweeping sanctions. But this approach did not slow Russia, which reinforced its front lines and captured more Ukrainian territory. Both sides have suffered tens of thousands of casualties. Ukraine’s economy has become heavily dependent on western aid. Kyiv has also transformed the way the war is fought by launching hundreds of drones each day at Russian troops and critical infrastructure. For President Vladimir Putin, who initially sought to shield the Russian public from the consequences of the war, these attacks are a stark reminder that the war has come home. Strikes on Russian oil facilities, described by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “long-range sanctions”, have knocked out parts of Russia’s refining capacity. Ukraine has also targeted the electricity infrastructure and fuel logistics of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula Russia annexed in 2014, forcing a state of emergency. Mr. Zelenskyy wants to use this offensive pressure to force Mr. Putin to the negotiating table and secure a ceasefire. But drone warfare has only slowed Russian advances. Last week, Russia’s Defence Ministry announced the capture of the eastern city of Kostiantynivka and a closing in on Lyman. Russia now controls over 20% of Ukraine since 2014. Russia has repeatedly accused NATO countries of enabling Ukraine to strike deep inside its territory. Mr. Putin is already under pressure over his inability to secure a decisive victory, and nationalist voices have urged him to widen the conflict to increase pressure on NATO. The situation remains highly volatile with no political settlement in sight. Ukraine can hurt Russia economically, but it continues to lose ground on the battlefield. Russia can inflict military losses on Ukraine, but it is also facing attacks on a scale unseen since the Second World War. Neither side has a viable military path to achieving its objectives. Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy should adopt a more accommodative position with mutual concessions. They should agree to a ceasefire and be ready to begin substantive negotiations on the outstanding issues, including the security concerns of both countries and the future of NATO. Russia-Ukraine Crisis / technology (general) / armed conflict / defence equipment / economy (general) / oil and gas - upstream activities / electricity production and distribution / NATO / politics
- 1The war exposes the structural paralysis of the United Nations Security Council, where Russia, as one of the five permanent members with veto power under the UN Charter, can block any binding resolution against itself. India, then a non-permanent Council member, repeatedly abstained on votes condemning the invasion, citing dialogue and diplomacy in line with its policy of strategic autonomy. The General Assembly's Eleventh Emergency Special Session condemned the invasion in March 2022 with 141 countries voting in favour.
- 2NATO, founded in 1949, rests on Article 5 collective defence, which has been invoked only once, after the September 11 attacks on the United States. The war triggered NATO's biggest enlargement in decades, with Finland joining in 2023 and Sweden in 2024, doubling the alliance's border with Russia. Ukraine's vulnerability also revives debate on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Kyiv surrendered Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from Russia, the United States and Britain.
- 3Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity of any state, making both the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion violations of international law. In Ukraine v. Russia under the Genocide Convention, the International Court of Justice ordered provisional measures in March 2022 directing Russia to suspend military operations. Separately, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against President Putin in March 2023 over the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.
- 4Western economic pressure on Russia includes the G7 and European Union price cap of 60 dollars per barrel on seaborne Russian crude oil imposed in December 2022, alongside the freezing of roughly 300 billion dollars of Russian central bank reserves. Before the war, the European Union depended on Russia for about 40 percent of its natural gas, a share it has since slashed. Ukraine's drone strikes on refineries now target the oil revenues that fund nearly a third of Russia's federal budget.
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