Warming waters, falling yields: Climate change and the future of India’s shrimp industry

India’s shrimp industry has long anchored the country’s marine export economy. However, beneath this outward strength lies a production system increasingly shaped by climate stress. What was once treated as a long-term environmental risk has already become embedded in daily farming realities across coastal regions such as Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Shrimp farming cycles are now being interrupted by changing water conditions, unpredictable weather patterns and rising biological stress, forcing farmers to recalibrate practices that were once stable and predictable.

Water temperature has emerged as a defining constraint in shrimp farming, with even slight deviations from the optimal range disrupting biological performance. As temperatures rise, metabolic activity increases without translating into growth, placing sustained physiological stress on shrimp. This weakens immunity and heightens vulnerability to diseases such as Early Mortality Syndrome and White Spot Syndrome Virus. These outbreaks are now more frequent during peak summer months, leading to recurring crop losses and uneven yields across farming clusters.

At the same time, extreme weather events are compounding this stress. Cyclones, floods and erratic rainfall are disrupting production cycles and damaging farm infrastructure. Sudden drops in salinity affect feed absorption and survival rates, while physical damage to ponds and power systems can result in complete stock loss. Larger farms are investing in mitigation measures, but smaller operators face higher mortality and limited recovery capacity. The result is a widening resilience gap, with climate volatility steadily reshaping both cost structures and risk perception in the sector.

Salinity stability sits at the core of shrimp health, yet it is becoming harder to maintain across farming regions. Shifting rainfall patterns, combined with seawater intrusion in certain coastal belts, are creating unstable pond conditions. As salinity fluctuates, feed conversion efficiency declines and growth cycles extend beyond expected harvest timelines. Mortality risk increases in parallel, forcing farmers to intervene more aggressively.

These interventions come at a cost. Aeration systems, water exchange cycles and chemical treatments are being used more frequently to stabilise conditions. The result is a steady escalation in input costs. In many cases, production expenses are rising faster than farm gate prices, compressing margins across the value chain. The pressure is most visible among small and mid-scale farmers who have limited access to credit and risk hedging mechanisms, making them more exposed to cost shocks.

India’s global strength in shrimp exports is also shaping its vulnerability profile. The US remains the largest importer at 311,948 tonnes in FY 2024–25, followed by China at 136,164 tonnes and the European Union at 99,310 tonnes. This concentration of demand in a limited set of markets creates sensitivity to both pricing shifts and supply-side disruptions.

Over the past five years, exports to the United States have shown volatility, moving from 272,041 tonnes in 2020–21 to 311,948 tonnes in 2024–25. While demand remains strong, supply consistency is increasingly influenced by climate-linked production variability. This directly affects India’s pricing power in global markets, where stability of supply often determines negotiating strength more than absolute volume.

Despite mounting challenges, adaptation is gradually taking root. Recirculating aquaculture systems and biofloc technology are being adopted to reduce dependence on external environmental conditions. These systems allow greater control over water quality and reduce exposure to temperature and salinity fluctuations, improving survival rates and disease resistance.

In select regions, climate-controlled pond systems are also being introduced. These enable farmers to regulate temperature and maintain salinity stability, offering a buffer against external variability. However, adoption remains uneven due to high setup costs and limited access to financing. On the biological front, research into disease-resistant shrimp strains is advancing, with a focus on improving resilience without compromising growth efficiency.

The scale of climate stress is now pointing to clear policy gaps. Coastal aquaculture requires stronger adaptation frameworks that integrate infrastructure resilience, water management and early warning systems. Cyclone and extreme rainfall alerts need deeper integration into farming cycles so that operational decisions can be made in advance rather than reactively.

Insurance mechanisms also require restructuring. Current models are largely designed around production loss rather than climate variability, leaving many farmers underinsured. This gap becomes critical during repeated climate shocks, where cumulative losses are not adequately captured in compensation structures.

Long-term resilience in India’s shrimp industry will depend on structural diversification and operational recalibration. Export concentration in a few large markets increases exposure to both climate-linked supply fluctuations and global price volatility. Expanding into emerging markets can help distribute demand risk more evenly.

At the same time, value addition offers a viable path for margin improvement. Processed and semi-processed shrimp products reduce dependence on raw commodity pricing cycles and can strengthen India’s positioning in the global seafood trade. Ultimately, the sector’s definition of productivity is beginning to shift. Output volume will remain important, but stability under climate stress is emerging as the more decisive measure of sustainability.